AAF Week 3 odds, picks: Atlanta Legends cover spread against Birmingham Iron, San Diego Fleet win again
If we've learned anything through the first two weeks of the season, it's that playing on the road is a bear. Shocker, right? But even the Alliance's best team, the Orlando Apollos, needed a late pick-six to seal a road victory in Week 2. While it's still to be determined how much value we should assign to home-field advantage -- is it greater than three points? -- we can deduce that going on the road means it's hard to cover. Only twice so far has a road team covered, both in Week 2.
More on the AAF
As the AAF moves into its third week, we find, again, some top-four teams in perilous spots. The Arizona Hotshots and Birmingham Iron go on the road to Salt Lake City and Atlanta, respectively, as one-score favorites; the San Antonio Commanders are actually a two-point dog at the San Diego Fleet. Will this introduce the first round of chaos into the AAF's regular season? It's time to parse through all four games on Saturday and Sunday.
Lines are courtesy of Westgate SuperBook.
Arizona Hotshots (-4.5) at Salt Lake Stallions, O/U 46
An intriguingly small line here for the top team in the West on the road against a winless team. This was a 16-point win for the Hotshots in Tempe just two weeks ago -- and Salt Lake had its starting quarterback, Josh Woodrum, for a half before he injured his hamstring. Obviously, Woodrum's health is a factor in whether the Stallions can cover. Playing at home for the first time should help, and given that these two teams know each other already, I'll side with the defenses making enough plays to sweat the under. Arizona has just enough big-play ability to cover, though.
Pick: Hotshots -4.5, Under 46
Memphis Express at Orlando Apollos (-15.5), O/U 45.5
The Express covered against (and nearly beat) Arizona in Week 2 because of poor ball security and execution by the Hotshots. In all, Arizona had five turnovers (two on downs, two interceptions and one fumble). Otherwise, there still wasn't a lot of life from Memphis' offense (3.5 yards per play). They'll be going up against the best offense in the AAF, and certainly the best passing offense. Meanwhile, Memphis gives up seven yards per attempt through the air, second-worst in the Alliance. Though I'm wary of a spread this big, the Apollos are rolling.
Pick: Apollos -15.5, Over 45.5
Birmingham Iron (-6.5) at Atlanta Legends, O/U 40
Finally, Atlanta gets a home game. Unfortunately, it's against the Iron, a team that makes you feel as though you're playing football in a swamp with lead shoes. And Birmingham boasts the best passing defense and second-best overall defense in yards per play. The Legends are winless, which means they'll be playing angry. They certainly looked improved from Week 1 to Week 2. I'll give them the cover, but this is setting up to be a low-scoring rock fight.
Pick: Legends +6.5, Under 40
San Antonio Commanders at San Diego Fleet (-2.5), O/U 43.5
How will the Commanders respond after losing an intense, emotional game on Sunday to the Apollos? A road trip to San Diego, a familiar opponent, won't be easy -- especially not since the Fleet have a win under their belt. We also don't know how San Antonio is going to do on the road for the first time, but away teams are 2-6 against the spread. I'm still concerned about San Diego's O-line -- it took the offense seven quarters into the season to score their first touchdown -- but I think they catch San Antonio at a good time. I wouldn't be surprised if, once again, this one is low scoring and anyone's game going into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Fleet -2.5, Under 43.5
Atlanta United in Costa Rica: A digi-blog
SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA —
If Wednesday, my first day in Costa Rica is any indication, Thursday is going to be nuts. Insane. Chaotic. Wonderful. Exhilarating. Enriching.
Atlanta United will play Herediano tonight in the CONCACAF Champions League tournament in a stadium that, if it were a high school’s in Georgia, the boosters would have gotten together to demolish to build anew because that’s the American way.
But this stadium is cool. So, so cool.
Oh, the weather isn’t cool. It’s warm like a hug. I feel bad for you back in Atlanta.
And traffic isn’t cool. If this traffic were in Atlanta, every Fortune 500 company and medium-sized business would quickly re-think allowing workers to work from home.
Anyway, my boss, Chris, asked to me to write a digital blog about my day.
Hold on, I hear Herediano fans chanting outside the hotel.
Wait, it’s River Plate fan.
Wait, it’s Howler Monkeys.
No, it’s just the espresso machine that I can’t figure out how to work. I’m not the savviest traveler (I need you here, Annette).
Away we go:
Here's the heck on earth that is Costa Rica.
Here’s a screenshot of the weather when we touched down in San Jose on Wednesday. This came a little bit after I received a weather warning for what you are experiencing in Atlanta.
This is my attempt to throw shade.
I’m not very good at it.
This was the line at Customs around 1:50 p.m. in Costa Rica. It goes on and on and on.
The sun is out.
The sky is blue.
Everyone got off the plane in a reasonable manner.
Life is good.
And then we reach the line of Customs.
Ugh.
It stretches from one end of a hallway all the way to the other, a distance of more than 50 yards.
Filled with fishermen, school travel groups and a few Atlanta United supporters, it moves briskly.
This was the line in Customs around 1:30 p.m.
Until it ends here. Another line. Much, much longer than the first.
I’m starting to feel anxiety because it’s around 2 p.m. here. There is a press conference at the stadium at 5:30 p.m.
My hotel is 6 miles away. That won’t take long to reach, I thought. I was wrong.
The stadium is 9 miles away from the hotel. That won’t take long to reach, I thought. I was wrong.
But, again, the line moves briskly and everyone is in a good mood.
Atlanta United's players arrived at Customs around 2:45 p.m.
Hey, look which MLS Cup-winning team is here and gets its own fancy-schmancy Customs line!
I mentally shake my fist and break out my grumpy old man voice in a protest heard only in my head.
One of the players sees me and tells me to put on an Atlanta United shirt and hop into their line.
Realizing that’s a recipe for the shortest-ever stay in Costa Rica, I politely declined.
It took about 75 minutes from the time we got off the plane until I jumped into an orange taxi.
Not too bad.
The traffic in San Jose is unlike anything I've ever experienced. This was taken on the way to Herediano's stadium.
Remember my hotel being 6 miles away? Yeah.
This is traffic in San Jose.
There is a lot of traffic in San Jose.
Imagine all the cars in the world being put in the same small city at the same time. That’s what it feels like.
There are lanes....sort of.
There are turn signals....sort of.
There are definitely motorcyclists zooming between cars like they are auditioning to be in Mad Max.
There is a symphony of horns. There is the angry horn (one long honk), the courteous horn (two short honks), the I’m-driving-into-your-blind-spot-so-please-don’t-hit-me horn (two short honks followed by two more).
There are buses and 18-wheelers making turns that shouldn’t be made.
There are cars cutting across two lanes to make sudden stops at bus stops.
Jon Nelson and I shared a taxi to and from the stadium. I heard him say “ooh,” a half-dozen times as drivers did things that if I were to see my 16-year-old daughter try I would immediately take away her license, keys, car and cell phone.
But there wasn’t a single accident that we saw.
It was crazy. Fun, but crazy.
This quaint sign greets visitors to the stadium.
You know that gigantic metallic eagle statue that’s outside of Mercedes-Benz Stadium?
Yeah?
There’s no such thing at Estadio Eladio Rosabal Cordero, which is tucked into a neighborhood, surrounded by businesses.
This is the sign for the stadium. Otherwise, a tourist could walk right by and not realize what they just passed.
As you walk into the stadium, this is painted on a wall.
Once inside the stadium, this message greets visitors.
Translated: More than a team a family.
The stadium was built in 1951. There are small passageways to small offices and rooms all over the place.
It seats about 8,700.
A plaque commemorating the stadium and team is affixed to a wall that you walk by as you enter the stadium from a corner near the street. The field is ahead.
As you walk through one of the tight, short tunnels, and make a left as walk toward the field and stands you are greeted by this sign congratulating Herediano.
Translated: “For the brilliant campaign in which he deservedly won the title of 1978 national soccer champion.”
A look to the left as you enter the stadium.
And then you see the field and stands.
These words are meant to be complimentary, so please read them with that spirit.
The stadium is gritty. It’s not shiny and clean like Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The stands are concrete. The red and yellow paint is peeling. There are cracks everywhere. There is grime. There is a stray cat that prowls for whatever it can find.
But there is pride.
There is toughness.
It’s so cool.
You start to imagine what it’s going to be like Thursday night, with 8,000 or so Herediano fans packed into these tight spaces, cheering and singing for their club.
There is a tiny wooden press box near midfield. I won’t be sitting there. I will be either in the stands, or in that covered area at the top of the stands behind the goal.
The players will come out of a tunnel (literally a tunnel), from the ground that is behind the goal.
The press conference didn’t start until around 6. Atlanta United got stuck in traffic. Go figure. (Yes, that’s my finger in the frame).
As Michael Parkhurst and Frank de Boer answer questions, chanting can be heard outside the stadium. This room is around 20 yards from one of the main gates, which is where a crowd has gathered.
I assumed they are chanting for Herediano.
They aren’t.
They are River Plate fans cheering for Atlanta United’s Pity Martinez.
Someone shuts a door.
They can still be heard.
Someone shuts the big metal gate.
They can still be heard.
A few local journalists attended the press conference.
A few local journalists turned out to the press conference. They asked great questions, including how MLS has improved, about Pity Martinez and Josef Martinez, and about the Champions League.
The team took the turf field to work out on Thursday. The turf was hard.
Atlanta United finally took the field around 6:20 p.m.
The field is turf and it is hard.
It’s not level.
The ball is going to take some really weird bounces on Thursday.
River Plate fans being interviewed by a TV crew. They really wanted to see Atlanta United's Pity Martinez.
River Plate fans stand outside the stadium, still chanting about Pity Martinez.
Their patience was later rewarded when he came off the bus and signed a few autographs.
That was my first day in Costa Rica.
Tonight’s game is 9 p.m. here, 10 p.m. in Atlanta.
You can watch it on Univision or on Yahoo.com.
I hope that you will follow me on twitter @DougRobersonAJC for updates from the game tonight, and consider reading the stories I will file in the middle of the night and throughout Friday about Atlanta United’s first foray into the Champions League.
Predicting Atlanta United’s lineup at Herdiano in CCL opener
© Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images
How will Frank de Boer line them up in Costa Rica?
Well, it’s finally here. With the shine of MLS Cup glory largely behind us, the first page of Chapter III of Atlanta United is written tonight. This chapter starts a little differently - a lot differently, in fact - as it takes us to Heredia, Costa Rica for Atlanta’s opening match of the 2019 Concacaf Champions League against Herediano. And with a new coach, a new big-money signing and plenty of ambition surronding it, the hope is that things begin on teh right foot.
The big questions
How will the team turn out in its first competitive match in 2019 and its first under Frank de Boer? While this is a Herediano side it should have success with, Atlanta do have a tendency to play down to its competition at times (see at Houston and at San Jose last year). It can ill afford to come out flat in front of what should be a raucous, heavily pro-Herediano crowd at the Rosabal Cordero and with El Team looking to get on the front foot early.
How quickly can Josef and Pity Martinez build chemistry together? During Friday’s kit reveal in Atlanta, Josef Martinez described his relationship with Miguel Almiron as more of a brotherhood rather than as teammates. I’m interested to see how he and Pity Martinez begin to build a relationship and understanding of what the other is doing, because that will be very key in this match and early on in the MLS campaign.
Predicted Atlanta United lineup at Herediano in Concacaf Champions League
Formation: 3-4-3
Thoughts? Questions? Let me know in the comments.
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