B.O.

What Film Stands To Gain The Most At The B.O. From An Oscar Best Picture Win? Perhaps None At All

Yes, that’s exactly right: Should Netflix’s Roma or Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther take Best Picture at the Oscars on Sunday, forget about any type of halo effect at the box office.

In either case, Netflix is the winner in regards to eyeballs: Both titles are available to watch on the streaming service.  

Related stories

Oscars Pregame Warmup: Watch Deadline's Reviews Of All Eight Best Picture Nominees

Oscars Ratings Drop Sees ABC Offering Advertisers Guarantees For First Time

'Locke & Key': Michael Morris To Direct First Two Episodes Of Netflix Drama

.

While SAG ensemble winner Black Panther, released a year ago, has tapped out $1.3 billion worldwide, Netflix/Participant’s theatrical-streaming release of Roma is a sign of what is yet to come during Oscar season, particularly how  major indie features are handled: An obligatory exclusive theatrical release over a short period before becoming available on a streaming platform like Netflix, Hulu or Amazon.

As one rival major studio distribution boss told Deadline recently about Netflix’s handling of Roma, “They didn’t break any rules, in fact they played by them” in regards to the stipulations put forth by the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences. The movie counts two Golden Globes for director Alfonso Cuaron and Best Foreign Film, and won the top prize at BAFTA and Critics’ Choice.

While Roma has been in theaters since Nov. 21 –the pic is booked at roughly 90 locations this weekend alone–Netflix has not reported grosses, nor have they reported streaming viewership numbers which is by and large the company’s policy. The initial first week’s run of Roma was four-walled at the IFC Center, and Landmark 57 in New York and The Landmark in Los Angeles. Following that when the pic hit streaming on Dec. 14, we heard that the feature was offered at generous terms in exhibitors’ favor (Like at 60% to 70% in exhibs’ favor). However, per Netflix sources we hear that the rental rate was akin to a regular film where it starts off around 40% to 50% for an exhibitor, with the latter’s share of the B.O. increasing thereafter week after week. During the post nom period Roma increased to 100 sites, 45 of those theaters being new locations.

.

Having navigated around the big theater chains such as AMC, Regal and Cinemark which bar short-windowed movies, especially those titles available on VOD or streaming, Netflix takes pride in those theaters that have held Roma since the start. Also, Roma was flat out rejected by the big three’s annual Oscar Best Picture showcases, as Deadline exclusively reported.

Some film distributors feared that Roma‘s awards season swath would spell the end of the independent feature theatrical release as we know it during future awards seasons. After winning two Golden Globes, we asked Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, and he was over the moon believing his personal black and white Spanish-language film had the best of both worlds: the widest audience possible in 70MM theaters and on streaming. Juxtapose this to Amazon’s black and white Polish language feature Cold War which has made $3.5M at the domestic B.O. with 270 theaters being its widest count (Amazon boss Jennifer Salke said at TCA last week that she’s considering the Netflix theatrical/streaming model for some awards-worthy titles in the future).

Should Universal/Participant/DreamWorks’ PGA Award winner Green Book wind up with Best Picture on Sunday, then yes, expect to see that post Oscars B.O. boost.

.

By Sunday, the Peter Farrelly-directed drama should be just under $70M and by the end of its run should see another 11% or 13% gain for a final domestic of $77M to $79M. Since the pic’s wide break over Thanksgiving at 1,063 theaters, Green Book has seen a near 13x multiple which speaks to how it resonates with audiences. In ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak exits Green Book scored 4 1/2 stars, 91% positive with largely evenly split female-to-male ratio and 87% over 25. Netflix did not have Roma privately polled by CinemaScore nor was the feature monitored by PostTrak.

Some in distribution say that a box office halo following a film’s Best Picture win at the Oscars is a trajectory from a bygone era. With shorter theatrical windows, it’s been a while since we’ve seen huge percent jumps in a pic’s total running B.O. following the award ceremony, i.e. Best Picture winners like 1988’s The Last Emperor (+75% post show with a final of $43.9M), 2005’s Million Dollar Baby (+55% post Oscars with $100.4M) and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire (+44% with final of $141.3M). Best Picture winners such as last year’s The Shape of Water, 2014’s 12 Years a Slave, and 2015’s Birdman have only seen post Oscar B.O. jumps between 11%-13%.

Instead distributors look to the post Nom frame to make all their moola and this year, in addition to Green Book, Annapurna’s Vice (just under $47M by Sunday) and Fox Searchlight’s The Favourite (around $32M) were the most notable gainers this season respectively with 18% and 38%. The reason why these three pics made recognizable increases is due to the fact that they were released later in 2018 and had more runway to keep grossing this year. All of the other Best Picture Nominees were released prior to Thanksgiving and had pretty much played out. Should Annapurna’s Vice and Fox Searchlight’s The Favourite win key awards, their respective studios will re-release them back into theaters.

Always remarkable coming away from Oscar night are those pics that lose in key categories, yet continue to rally at the B.O.  American Sniper won only one Oscar for sound editing out of its six which included Best Picture, however, the Clint Eastwood-directed movie made another $30M following the 2015 Academy Awards for a final domestic of $350M. Hidden Figures saw another $17M after Oscar night 2017 for a final B.O. of $169.6M. However, the bread for these pics simply didn’t rely on their awards traction, rather their success stemmed from the fact that they spoke to a greater shared consciousness.

Get more from Deadline.com: Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Newsletter

Francois Ozon’s ‘By The Grace Of God’ Delivers Strong B.O. Opening in France

Rolling off its triumph at the Berlin Film Festival where it won the Silver Bear, François Ozon’s Catholic church sexual abuse drama By “The Grace Of God” had a strong theatrical bow in France where it sold nearly 50,000 tickets on 290 screens on Feb. 20, its first day out

One of the best opening day for a French film so far this year, “By The Grace of God” is inspired by the scandal surrounding Bernard Preynat, a Roman Catholic priest who was accused of having abused scouts from 1986 to 1991, and was finally indicted in 2016 after several victims decided to file lawsuits. He is due to be tried later this year.

Produced by Eric and Nicolas Altmayer at Mandarin Cinema, “By The Grace of God” faced some legal turmoil in the run up to its release as Preynat’s lawyers attempted to delay the distribution of the film in France, arguing that it could have an impact on the outcome of the priest’s trial. But the court rejected the request and Mars Films proceeded with the release.

The movie’s release also coincides with a politically-charged climate within the Catholic Church. Earlier this week, Pope Francis met with senior bishops from around the world to discuss the protection of minors.

Related

“By the Grace of God” follows Alexandre, a man in his 40s living in Lyon with his wife and children, who discovers that the priest who abused him decades ago continues to work with children and teenagers. He joins forces with François and Emmanuel, who were also victims of the priest, to bring justice and “lift the burden of silence” about what they endured.

Melvil Poupaud, Denis Ménochet and Swann Arlaud co-star as three men who band together to expose their abuse by a family priest after they discover, years later, that he continues to be in close contact with children and teenagers.

The movie has earned near-unanimous stellar reviews following its world premiere at the Berlinale. Variety’s Guy Lodge said “By The Grace of God” was different from ‘Spotlight’ which also dealt with sexual abuse in the Catholic Church but was told from the perspective of investigative journalists. In Ozon’s film, the story unfolds through the eyes of those “who suffered at the Catholic Church’s hands,” said Lodge.

“Ozon’s conscientiously researched screenplay finds significant tonal variation within that remit, establishing distinct personalities and outlooks for the four semi-fictionalized men driving its narrative; as focus shifts from one to the next, the tenor of the filmmaking changes several times over the course of a hefty but consistently gripping 137 minutes,” said Lodge’s review in Variety.

Sold and co-produced by Playtime, “By The Grace of God” has been acquired in most territories around the world. A U.S. deal is currently being negotiated. Playtime’s co-founder Nicolas Brigaud-Robert said “the film struck a chord among distributors and audiences alike because it addresses the consequences of such trauma on one’s identity, sense of masculinity and place in society.”

The film marks a departure for Ozon whose best-known films are “The Swimming Pool” which competed at Cannes in 2003; the BAFTA-nominated “Potiche” and “8 Women.”

Eric Marti at Comscore France pointed out that ‘By The Grace of God’ benefited from the strong reviews, the Berlinale Silver Bear prize, as well as the controversy surrounding the film.

The positive word-of-mouth should also continue pushing the B.O. results forward. Although it’s not the best kick-off of the week (the submarine thriller “The Wolf’s Call” ranked ahead), the score of “By The Grace of God” on opening day is a great achievement considering the difficult topic of the movie, argued Marti, who added that it’s been a strong start of the year for French films. Besides “By The Grace of God” and “The Wolf’s Call,” the other box office successes of this first quarter include the comedies “Serial (Bad) Weddings 2,” “City Hunter” and “Invisibles.”

Mars Films will be increasing the number of screens for “By The Grace of God” from 290 to over 340 during the second week.

Roadside’s ‘Run The Race’, Bollywood ‘Total Dhamaal’ Set For Weekend – Specialty B.O. Preview

With the Academy Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards set for this weekend, higher profile Specialty newcomers are mostly taking a step back. Roadside Attractions however is going for a nearly wide roll out of family-faith-drama Run The Race, a genre it has had success with in the past. Bollywood is also stepping out in North America in a couple hundred locations with comedy Total Dhamaal, in conjunction with a release in over 50 countries. Oscilloscope is opening San Francisco Film Festival debut doc Wrestle by Suzannah Herbert and co-director Lauren Belfer with an exclusive New York run this weekend before heading to L.A. And newcomer Santa Rita Film Co. is opening upstart drama The Iron Orchard in north Texas locations this weekend before opening New York, L.A. and other select cities March 1.

Run The RaceDirector-writer: Chris DowlingWriters: Jake McEntire, Jason BaumgardnerCast: Tanner Stine, Kristoffer Polaha, Mykelti Williamson, Frances Fisher, Evan Hofer, Mario Van Peebles, Kelsey Reinhardt, Caleb CastilleDistributor: Roadside Attractions

Distributor Roadside Attractions has had a steady stream of faith-based titles, which have found success at the box office, including last year’s family drama, I Can Only Imagine, which grossed over $83.48M in theaters. Bill Reeves and The WTA Group brought family sports drama, Run The Race, to the company, which is taking the feature out fairly wide starting Friday.

“Tim Tebow is an executive producer and we thought this would be very promotable,” said Roadside co-president Howard Cohen. “For all the faith films that we do, we stand behind what they’re about. This [centers] on two brothers, family and forgiveness. It’s about how they get through their troubles and come out on the other end.”

Run The Race is set against the backdrop of high school football and track. Two brothers in a small Southern town face escalating problems with two different world views, straining – but ultimately strengthening – the bonds of brotherhood.

Along with ID-PR which is spearheading public relations with mainstream media,Roadside is working with 130 Agency based in Dallas, targeting the faith community. “We’re on parallel tracks,” said Cohen. “I think there’s a solid audience for these films. It isn’t, ‘if you build it, they will come.’ There are enough releases that [the faith audience] can pick and choose from.”

Cohen noted that in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s there was a plethora of gay films that hit the big screen, which drove that audience to theaters initially. Similarly to that audience as well as other groups that have found “recognition on the big screen,” faith-based audiences were motivated when consistent content made it to theaters early on. But the need for quality ultimately takes over.

“There’s a rush of excitement when audiences are recognized and discovered, but then there’s a realization that films need to be good,” said Cohen. “[In this example], they’re not just going to come out because it’s a faith film. They are looking at the same criteria as any other audience.” Cohen touted Run The Race’s performance and filmmaking as it readies for its theatrical bow.

Run The Race is opening in 850 theaters this weekend. It may expand to some additional locations based on performance.

Total DhamaalDirector: Indra KumarWriters: Paritosh Painter, Ved Prakash, Bunty RahtoreCast: Ajay Devgn, Madhuri Dixit, Anil Kapoor, Sanjay Mishra, Javed Jaffrey,Arshad Warsi, Riteish Deshmukh, Esha Gupta, Boman Irani, and Johnny LeverDistributor: FIP

Bollywood comedy Total Dhamaal is going into its release in India, North America and about 50 other countries around the world this weekend. Distributor Fox Star became involved with the project prior to its shoot and is part of a successful comedy franchise. The title’s trailer has 58M views on YouTube.

Total Dhamaal is a mad adventure comedy about money. Guddu, a small time crook gets double-crossed by his own colleague, Pintu, after they have managed to get their hands on an illegal booty. Guddu & his sidekick Johnny manage to trace his colleague but only after Pintu has given the information of the booty to 3 other groups i.e. Avinash & Bindu – a bickering couple about to be divorced; Lallan & Jhingur – Fire Officers turned offenders & two weird siblings Aditya & Manav. All of them refuse Guddu’s offer to distribute the money and the race to reach the booty first begins. Finally after many ups & downs all reach the designated place. But it’s not as easy as it seems. Is there any truth about the hidden booty? Or are all of them being fooled? After a day full of life changing, near death experiences, will the adventure ever end or another one begin?

“We expect this film to appeal to the hardcore Bollywood audiences who are into the comedy genre of films,” noted FIP’s Rohit Sharma. “The appeal of the film is more for the South Asian sub-continent audiences and we are using the popular TV, radio, print and digital platforms to market this film.”

Consistent with its simultaneous worldwide release strategy, Sharma added that Bollywood titles “that work in India generally work across Indian sub-continent diaspora audiences.” Messaging is targeted toward South Asian groups through Indian pay TV channels, local Indian cable stateside along with print and radio programs popular with South Asian.

FIP is opening Total Dhamaal in 203 locations in North America.

WrestleDirector-writer: Suzannah HerbertCo-director-writer: Lauren BelferSubjects: Chris Scribner, Jalien, Young Jamario Rowe, Teague Berres, Jaquan RhodesDistributor: Oscilloscope

Wrestle director Suzannah Herbert and co-director Lauren Belfer met while working on documentary Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese. During a break in production, Herbert was looking out for Southern stories. “I heard about this wrestling team that had been getting local attention,” said Herbert. “They had only been wrestling for [a few] years but they were beating well-funded teams that had been around much longer.”

The duo took a trip to Alabama to meet the team and were struck by their personal stories. The school itself was also an underdog. The school had been consistently underperforming academically and slated to be closed. “Of course we didn’t have money raised, but this was going to be the school’s final year,” said Belfer. “We moved down to Alabama when the season opened in 2015.”

Wrestle is a coming-of-age documentary about four members of a high-school wrestling team at Huntsville’s J.O. Johnson High School, a longstanding entry on Alabama’s list of failing schools. Coached by teacher Chris Scribner, teammates Jailen, Jamario, Teague, and Jaquan each face challenges far beyond a shot at the State Championship: splintered family lives, drug use, teenage pregnancy, mental health struggles, and run-ins with the law threaten to derail their success on the mat and lock any doors that could otherwise open. Tough-love coach Scribner isn’t off the hook, either; he must come to terms with his own past conflicts while unwittingly wading into the complexities of race, class and privilege in the South.

Suzannah Herbert and Lauren Belfer stayed the entire school year, though the school district had some reservations. “The district was worried that the film would be about the school and they didn’t want us to make a film about a problem they had already addressed,” said Herbert. “So we did have limited access during the day. The team itself was getting such attention, though, that they did recognize the value in us highlighting their work. The school is a backdrop.”

Their project eventually concentrated on four of the teens. Herbert’s sister loaned some money and she supplemented it with some savings to get the production up and running. Later a trailer was made and Seth Gordon and Steven Klein came on as producers. Said Belfer: “We were in the throws of production in Alabama by then and not able to raise money, so it was very helpful that we had advocates.”

Their year amassed 650 hours of material. “We discovered a lot of nuance in the edit,” said Belfer. “Suzannah and I edited on and off for a couple of years.” Also helping with the edit was Pablo Proenza, who worked on Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 11/9 and Capitalism: A Love Story. “We wanted it to be as ‘vérité’ as possible,” said Belfer. “We wanted people to be immersed in with the wrestlers.”

Wrestle debuted at the San Francisco Film Festival with the team and coach in attendance. Oscilloscope came on later for theatrical, while the title played additional regional festivals picking up audience and jury wins including the Maysles Brothers Award for Best Documentary at the Denver Film Festival.

Oscilloscope is opening Wrestle Friday in New York at Village East Cinema and on March 1 in Los Angeles at the Monica Film Center, with national expansion in the following weeks.

The Iron OrchardDirector-writer: Ty RobertsWriter: Gerry De LeonCast: Lane Garrison, Ali Corbin, Austin Nichols, Hassie Harrison, Lew Temple, Allan McLeod, Donny BoazDistributor: Santa Rita Film Co.

Producer Houston Hill met filmmaker The Iron Orchard filmmaker Ty Roberts and writer Gerry de Leon in 2011 after producing a small film in western Texas. Roberts sent him a copy of the script for the film opening Friday. “[He] thought I might respond to the project…and I was drawn to it immediately because it didn’t bend to the cultural norms of the day…,” commented Hill. “As my producing partner, Camille Chambers, likes to say, ‘It’s Mad Men of the oil fields.”

The Iron Orchard is the story of Jim McNeely (Lane Garrison), a young man thrust into the vibrant and brutal West Texas oilfields in 1939. In a state gushing with oil and filled with ambition, McNeely settles into a small-town community that is slowly overcoming the trauma of the Great Depression. The formidable path before him is riddled with obstacles – overbearing bosses who try to keep him down, powerful oilmen who are reluctant to invest in a fresh face, and women who see salvation in his charms – but he finds a glimmer of hope with his first loves: new wife Lee Montgomery (Ali Cobrin) and drilling for oil. With everything falling into place to ascend to the top of the oil chain, McNeely stumbles upwards through his success and in turn jeopardizes his desperate longing to conquer this brave new world of influence and wealth.

Houston said the search for the lead in the film was a challenge given the little known filmmaking team and small budget. Houston said that a lot of offers went out to established actors to no avail, adding: “Thank God that happened because we met Lane Garrison through a friend and then we knew we had our Jim McNeely,” noted Hill. “Anne Fleitas cast the other three leads from Texas. Austin Nichols was a friend of mine and Ty’s. He brought on Hassie Harrison who comes from a Texas Oil Dynasty. The only non-Texan was Ali Cobrin who was submitted by her manager in New York but did an amazing job adapting to her role as a West Texas gal.”

Financing came through several private equity sources in Texas, according to Hill, in addition to a number of in-kind donations including period cars, oil rigs and a newly renovated 1930s hotel where the project based its operations. Hill also said “community involvement” played a crucial role for the film.

“We had a 24-day shoot primarily in the Permian Basin cities of Big Spring and Midland, Texas with a couple days in Austin,” said Hill. “Between the 115 degree heat, a haunted hotel and shooting on a shoestring budget, we’ll probably need to write a book someday about the experience. Camille says we’re trying to be Lawrence of Arabia on a Clerks budget.”

Ty Roberts and Houston Hill formed Santa Rita Film Co. after wrapping the film. According to Hill, they turned down early offers for the film. Said Hill: “The Sundance Institute consulted with us via their creative distribution grant and helped us formulate a solid indie distribution plan. We went down their list of contacts, had meetings and hired a producer of marketing and distribution, national and regional PR agencies, booking agent and social team. Sundance really helped inspire us to do this on our own and it mirrored ideas first brought to our attention by [some established distributors].”

The Iron Orchard is opening in select cities in north Texas starting Friday, February 22. The title will then head to New York, Los Angeles and other select cities on March 1.